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There’s no sense in wallowing in disappointment over the absence of Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, from Saturday’s 150th Preakness Stakes. His ownership and training team made it clear that they don’t consider the Triple Crown a prize worth chasing and instead are content to target the Belmont Stakes in early June.
Fortunately, this year’s Preakness is still an appealing race with a mix of returnees from the Derby and promising newcomers that could be poised for stardom. The winning horse will likely earn a trip to the Belmont for a rendezvous with Sovereignty — and a chance to claim supremacy in the three-year-old division.
Here’s what I’m watching for ahead of Saturday’s race from Baltimore.
Redemption in Baltimore?
Journalism, the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby, is the morning line favorite again in the Preakness. He outran 17 of his 18 rivals in the Derby, only finishing behind Sovereignty. On Saturday Journalism will face a field that is much smaller (eight horses) and full of question marks.
The question for bettors, though, is what constitutes value with him. He’s listed at 8-5 in the morning line, which could be a steal on a horse of his caliber. But will those odds actually hold up or will the public all be thinking the same thing? The lower the odds, the greater the incentive to look elsewhere, especially when you consider the history of horses in this same spot: Nine beaten Derby favorites this century have turned around and contested the Preakness, but only two of them won.
Kings of Baltimore
Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are two of the most decorated trainers in the sport, and they’ve both excelled in this race like no one else. Baffert’s eight Preakness wins are the most all-time, and Lukas is right behind him with seven. Between them, they’ve won the last two editions and one-third of all Preaknesses since 1980, a nearly half-century span.
Baffert will send out Goal Oriented this weekend. With just two career starts, neither in a stakes race, this is not your typical Baffert entry. There is clear upside potential, however. Goal Oriented won both races he’s run in and does have early speed, which can be beneficial in the Preakness. But this is a big step up in terms of competition level, and with such a thin resume the unknowns are plentiful. And with Baffert’s name attached, he’s likely to get a good amount of betting attention, driving down his price. None of Baffert’s wins in this race have been with a horse like this — but maybe that’s just a reflection of how confident he is in this one?
Lukas, meanwhile, is running American Promise, who was last seen finishing up the track in the Derby. His jockey, Nik Juarez, attempted a middle move in that race, but ended up squeezed tight between two others and then hastily retreated from contention. That performance is a lot to consider, especially given that American Promise’s only wins have been against much lesser competition than this. The best argument for him in this race is probably Lukas himself, who has won it with long shots before, including Seize the Grey at 9-1 last year.
The other Derby returnee
Sandman rounds out the horses that are here after running in the Derby. He was very popular with the betting public that day, going off as the second choice, but never got into the race and finished a well-beaten seventh. His team made a late and surprising decision to run here. His style as a deep-closing horse has not generally fared well in the Preakness, so he’ll either need to change things up and be closer to the pace, or he’ll be reliant on the front-runners going too fast and burning out. His Metallica-inspired name and celebrity ownership figure again to attract a lot of support at the windows.
The Derby-skippers
It used to be almost automatic that the Preakness would be won by a horse coming out of the Kentucky Derby. From 1984 to 2016, 30 of 33 winners had run in Louisville. But since then, we seem to have entered a new era.
Modern trainers are increasingly reluctant to run their horses frequently; attempting the two-week turnaround between Louisville and Baltimore is simply unthinkable to many of them. This has opened the door to Derby-skippers, horses that sit out the Run for the Roses and aim for the Preakness instead. They’ve now won six of the last eight.
Baffert’s Goal Oriented is one of them, but the most highly regarded may be Clever Again, who has flashed signs of brilliance in his three career races. In his most recent, a stakes win at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, he posted a Beyer speed rating of 101 — making him the only horse here besides Journalism that has put up a triple-digit figure.
River Thames looms large as well. Back in March, he ran against Sovereignty in a stakes race and lost by just a neck. He could be sitting in a good position on Saturday too, just off the speediest horses and poised to take over late. Somehow, his trainer, Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, is 0-for-10 in this race, although he’s often bypassed it with his top horses. The more money that Journalism, Sandman and Goal Oriented take, the more Clever Again and River Thames could emerge as value plays.
The other Derby skippers are deserving long shots. Heart of Honor is here following a protracted journey from the Middle East, where he finished second in a stakes race to Admire Daytona (who then ran dead last in the Derby). Pay Billy, who has won big on the lower-tier Maryland circuit, takes the customary local slot on the race; it’s been 42 years since a horse took that route to a Preakness victory. And Gosger’s time and speed rating were both ho-hum in the race he won to get here.
My bet
I went with my heart in the Derby, picking the feel-good story of Lukas and American Promise, and I’ve got the depleted bank account to show for it. Don’t think I’m not tempted to forgive that 16th-place Derby finish and take another shot with him here and, who knows, maybe I’ll lull myself into doing just that. But as much of a sucker as I am for Lukas horses in Triple Crown races, I do have my eyes on some other possibilities.
Along with the rest of the NBC team, I’ll tell you what I’ve come up with just before the race on Saturday. (Don’t worry, with plenty of time for you to cancel your bet if I curse your horse by picking it.)
